When Berlusconi appears at sunset, I believe it is appropriate to republish the ten points that I have dedicated in 2009 with the economic policy of the adventure of the entrepreneur in Milan. * One of the most beautiful books and more animated by a passion that I have ever civil law is The Economic Consequences of the Peace written by John Maynard Keynes in 1919, the day after his controversial abandonment of the Conference Peace of Versailles which put an end to the mass slaughter that was World War I, a text he wrote to protest against the absurd claims of the Allies against Germany's defeat, demands that contrasted sharply with the commitments contained in the act yield and created the most suitable conditions all’avvento del nazionalsocialismo dopo il disastro iperinflattivo che aveva caratterizzato la Repubblica di Weimar. Pur avendolo eletto a mio punto di riferimento principale per orientarmi tra gli alti marosi della tempesta perfetta in corso da oltre un anno e mezzo, confesso che credo che nessun economista sia stato tirato tanto spesso in ballo attribuendogli, nella maggior parte dei casi, idee che lo stesso Keynes avrebbe giudicato quanto meno alquanto sballate e, soprattutto e cosa per lui molto più importante, molto poco basate sulla logica formale, uno strumento di cui era talmente dotato da far dire a Bertrand Russell che era molto impegnativo discutere con lui.
Nell’accingermi a scrivere una serie di puntate del Diario specifically dedicated to the financial crisis to the economic consequences of Silvio Berlusconi, as I will refer that very passion that characterized the civil never too late British economist, not only in preparing the work cited above, but also in the second book dedicated to the peace treaty, in Can Lloyd George Do It? and in numerous speeches and articles collected in the Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes, even though I am well aware of the fact that the topic I chose hardly provoke reactions caused by works that intervened on decisions of historic importance and that the deeply divided ' world public opinion. As everyone is aware, after a past business sure of success, although characterized by shadows related to the beginnings, Silvio Berlusconi decided to commit themselves into the political arena at a time when the historical part of the so-called First Republic were literally smashed under the wave of popular outrage provoked by the "Clean Hands" investigations of the pool, a phenomenon of rejection that swept the five majority parties, cracked the image of the then Italian Communist Party, but left more or less intact the power of the then Italian Social Movement and the Northern League.
Using a very clever means of television communication, but not only from the three networks and has in its possession, the strength of the network of sellers of advertising space for Mediaset, simple but effective slogan and a very catchy jingle, captured his first victory in 1994 elections and created a government that lasted only a few months, drawing then in the 2001 elections and those of 2008, both won by large margins, and was defeated by Romano Prodi in both 1996 and 2006. As stated between the lines the former President of the Republic, Francesco Cossiga, beyond a very naive understanding of politics, however, feature much more apparent than real, the politician Berlusconi comes from an array of safe and proven faith Atlantic, the anti unquestioned, featuring an array dal proliferare di organizzazioni più o meno segrete come gladio, la loggia massonica Colosseum e la successiva loggia Propaganda 2, della quale Berlusconi fece parte al pari di numerosi esponenti del partito da lui fondato quando sembrava ineluttabile la vittoria delle sinistre.
Lo scontro tra questo schieramento atlantico e il molto composito fronte che potremmo, in estrema sintesi e con qualche forzatura, definire europeista dura oramai da sessanta anni e ha condizionato in misura fortissima lo sviluppo dell’economia italiana, soprattutto per quanto riguarda la finanza, la grande impresa privata e le cosiddette partecipazioni statali, mentre scarso, se non nullo, interesse veniva dedicato alle imprese di medie, piccole e piccolissime dimensioni which form the distinctive character of the economy of our country, perhaps the only world to have an army of millions of entrepreneurs out of a population that does not come to sixty million people, not to mention the endless number of games that are VAT more similar to entrepreneurs to employees. added together, and self-employed entrepreneurs in size is not too far from the one represented by employees, a feature perhaps unique among European countries, but that takes more particular when taking into account the fact that many employees perform, openly or not, activities of a business or the self in agriculture than in other areas of production, a fact that explains the extreme fragility of the boundaries between social classes in Italy and that creates a much broader social base than is apparent from official data for Berlusconi's political message, a message much in tune with this town of a little army of entrepreneurs 'DIY'.
I apologize for the long introduction, but I suspect that very little social stratification 'European' of Italian society as one of the least explored reasons for the success of Berlusconi's seemingly simplistic formula that sees a state with little or intrusive, especially at the those tax claims that bring the hives, the people of VAT and those small entrepreneurs who can not afford expensive tax experts, such as, but not limited to, for the third time the Italian finance minister, Giulio Tremonti. (The result of tomorrow) But the mere analysis of the particular social stratification that characterizes Italy only partially explains the radical change to the political ideology of the majority of Italians, if not being properly integrated with an analysis of the geographical location the phenomenon itself, which, as is now widely known, is centered in the northern regions, with particular reference to North Est e a una parte importante della Lombardia, ma attecchisce sempre di più in Emilia Romagna e in parti non marginali di quelle che un tempo erano considerate le regioni ‘rosse’, caratterizzate da un modello sociale ed economico altrettanto anomalo rispetto al modello prevalente europeo, seppur con la presenza di elementi solidaristici e culturali molto più forti di quelli presenti del Nord inteso in senso stretto.
Si può ironizzare quanto si vuole sugli aspetti folcloristici e chiaramente demagogici di quel movimento a suo tempo ideato dal politologo Gianfranco Miglio e guidato da un personaggio assolutamente originale quale è Umberto Bossi, ma sarebbe molto errato non comprendere che quello stesso movimento ha letteralmente scardinato a large part of northern regions, starting with the material interests of a large part of the population, the classic schemes right-center-left, at the turn of the millennium, they were still fully active in the rest of the beautiful country, although it is equally true that it is only after the strategic alliance with Berlusconi, the 2001 is not that of 1994, which saw its birth that left the North begins to be the backbone support of a center-right to the point of forcing the component of the right, otherwise the degree of marginalization, to join the project of a single party that is not entirely at random, the League can not only not to join, but also to maintain full freedom of movement, more pirate or not, even when, with the overwhelming victory of the 2008 election, will form the new government. Paradoxically, the only member of the center-left who understands completely the genetic mutation that was happening not only in the North, but also a significant part of the Centre, it was precisely Romano Prodi, however, the only , having twice defeated Berlusconi, even if the second measure of close, but, for reasons that would take too long to explain here, failed to intercept the deep reasons for that change, the mission having first entry into the euro and then having to accept, as an element of security, the presence of a minister Economy, a 24-carat bureaucrat who was and remains Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa, circumstances which twice turned it into a new San Sebastian, pierced by arrows shot by more friends who get up zero incessant fire of the enemy.
short, a masterpiece of Berlusconi as part of the Atlantic tip of proven faith and practical application and widespread ideology and antieuropeistica anticentralistica made by Gianfranco Miglio Umberto Bossi was to intercept the belly of the self-employed and those millions of entrepreneurs of all levels except the drawing room of Mediobanca and what once was considered the Northern Galaxy as they could ad avere come interlocutori i partiti di maggioranza e il maggiore partito di opposizione nella prima repubblica, il Partito Comunista Italiano, interlocutori che, al di là di qualche incidente di percorso, sono sempre stati proni alle esigenze del capitalismo delle grandi famiglie, pur elargendo sostanziose mance a larghi strati della popolazione italiana, attraverso il proliferare di provvedimenti assistenziali che hanno del tutto scassato i conti pubblici, contribuendo a creare quella voragine del debito pubblico che ha poi fatalmente portato a quelle politiche di rigore forse inevitabili ma che hanno favorito, nelle produzioni maggiormente produttive, l’insofferenza radicale sia di quanti ne venivano colpiti, sia di quelli che non pagavano né le sovrattasse, or taxes, but feared that sooner or later be affected by the progressive aging of the capacity assessment of the tax office! If this is the social base of the axis strategic Berlusconi-Bossi-Tremonti, it's pretty easy to see the lines of an economic policy that would otherwise be totally incomprehensible, at least according to the criteria followed in the major EU countries, a economic and fiscal policy that has as main objective the creation of a block of producers and workers employed in a position to replace the capitalism of the big companies, not surprisingly, they do not receive the same attention devoted to Gordon Brown, Nicholas Sarkozy or Angela Merkel and that, indeed, are help only just enough to not bring down the extended supply chain of their suppliers, which are owned in large part of the first hour of the new social bloc.
The test of the new approach, there was apparently mad with strenuous opposition to the rescue of Alitalia from the sole contender in the race, the Air France-KLM, through the establishment of a group of entrepreneurs who are not too known to the general public and little attention from the press more or less specialized to have given away, thanks to the efforts by the Chief Executive Officer of Intesa-San Paolo, Corrado Passera, the CAI and the first part of the acquisition of the assets of Alitalia then, and then open the door to defeat Air France, at the end of games and a few years, will spend the same amount as initially envisaged, but that will not pay for most of the state or the creditors of the former flag but the very brave visionary captains who have had the credit to the vision of Silvio, a masterpiece that he could not even now so reviled to Investment Banks and sees citizens called to pay something like € 3-4 billion ready at least according to polls, increasing consensus towards the present government. But the ambitions of that strategic priority, do not stop at the score of entrepreneurs who have bet also provide exceptional returns Expo area, aiming to create a block of hundreds of entrepreneurs of reference which, in turn, become the driving force of other, smaller project, however, that good it needs to march not only to contracts and orders, but also a substantial and continuing support from the banking system, which seems at least difficult in the current financial crisis and therefore requires the imperative need to put ever and / or heavily influence the choices at least the top five banking groups, which is largely already managed with reference to the group Intesa-San Paolo, especially after the release of uneven, for reasons familiari, Pietro Modiano, ma che richiede opportuni interventi in Unicredit Group, Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Banco Popolare e UBI Banca, interventi che non possono solo basarsi sui finalmente approvati e molto onerosi Tremonti Bonds, ma richiedono anche qualcosa di cui parlerò nella puntata di domani!
L’approccio di Silvio Berlusconi e Giulio Tremonti allo strategico snodo rappresentato dal credito è stato da me illustrato in decine di puntate del Diario della crisi finanziaria, ma credo che sia necessario osservare le mosse dell’ibrido Bermonti da un’ottica leggermente diversa se si vuole comprendere il nesso tra la loro posizione sul controllo, diretto o indiretto non fa, in realtà, grande differenza, di quella the Italian banking sector consists of the top five banking groups, which have merged over a period of fifteen years, hundreds of institutions of all sizes. As for the weaknesses and delays of the first five Italian banking groups, referring to the five episodes of the Journal of the financial crisis emerged in July of 2008, partly because it is from these delays and these weaknesses that you can understand more easily the reasons for the ease with which Giulio Tremonti has managed to put in check the heads of conglomerates, put together, have total assets of monstrous proportions, but, in terms of political influence are little more than the dwarves, because most of the current top leaders are viewed, rightly or wrongly, as being part of that financial-industrial complex that not only has stubbornly refused to recognize the positive aspects and shared in the economic philosophy implied policy strategy embodied by Silvio Berlusconi as part of the grid points outlined in the previous installments, but would also set up the bank of that part of the political spectrum against which is largely influenced by the 'enemy' number one Carlo De Benedetti!
The first prey in busy year of acquisitions in the banking sector Bermont was certainly represented by Corrado Passera, one of two former child prodigy of Italian finance, guilty, however, have twisted part of his professional experience with the De Benedetti at the time of the break up consumatasi for reasons that are still quite dark, which seemed on the way output also from the mega group that had actively helped to build the third phase of the restructuring of the Italian banking system, thanks to the almost lightning conquest of San Paolo-IMI, while in the flesh of Understanding was over a former piece of quality which the Bank Italian Commercial, horribly dismembered and even disappeared from the logo of the acquiring bank (do not think it should be remembered as the BCI has been the emblem secular and historical financial Cariplo, aggregating element of Understanding has been from time immemorial, a Catholic stronghold of finance). The acquisition of Passera took place in the middle of the election campaign, when the entry to straight leg made by the then opposition leader, but credited as certain to win the election, the ongoing negotiations between the nine symbols present in Alitalia chief executive officer of the buyer Air France-KLM, the explicitly called into question, not causing, as ought to have been part of a banker, an explicit denial, but very eloquent winks that made the historical increase of headache his presidente, Giovanni Bazoli, amico e sostenitore di Romano Prodi, una scelta di campo che ribaltò i rapporti di forza tra l’amministratore delegato e il presidente e che, a vittoria elettorale certificata, diede luogo al conferimento allo stesso Passera del ruolo di Advisor ufficiale del Governo nella straordinaria procedura di vendita della compagnia di bandiera alla ventina di imprenditori volenterosi capitanati da un altro ex compagno di avventura di De Benedetti, quel Roberto Colaninno che, qui si è toccato il massimo della perfidia, era ed è anche padre di quel Matteo che è ministro ombra dello sviluppo economico per il partito democratico.
Lo schieramento è divenuto poi sistemico con la vittoria di Passera nei confronti del suo vice acquisito in uno con Il San Paolo-IMI, quel Pietro Modiano che, alla guida della cosiddetta Banca dei Territori, non aveva affatto demeritato e che aveva come supporter niente di meno che il presidente del consiglio di gestione, Enrico Salza, e non era certo inviso al presidente del Consiglio di Sorveglianza, il già citato Bazoli, ma che doveva in ogni modo essere defenestrato per ragioni di ordine interno ed esterno alla banca. Travolto dagli alti marosi della tempesta perfetta in corso e dalle sue stesse scelte gestionali in merito, all’acquisizione di Hipoverein con annesse province orientali, di Capitalia con i suoi cronici guai, dell’espansione autonoma nei paesi dell’Europa dell’Est, Alessandro Profumo has tried in every way to climb the slope resulting from the appreciation of Bermont not clear, either pick up the relationship rather than consumed by the rival Passera, it opened with care to all or most inputs from Via XX Settembre and Palazzo Chigi, but all this will not, in all likelihood, to save his chair, when and if it is decided that no longer required to act as a target of the invective Tremontiane and act as a catalyst for the concern of shareholders, bank foundations in the first place. sauteed, very unlikely for family reasons, the managing directors of Banco Popolare and UBI Banca, Fabio Innocenzi and Giovanni Auletta Armenise, nailed by the circular letter of Tremonti the time a little less than omnipotent Fondazione Monte dei Paschi di Siena to their responsibilities, Bermont do is sit on the classical side of the river to await the passage of more or less hated enemies, as, for understood that, when it went to rallies in that category of Siena to hear the word of Massimo d'Alema, is fabled to send the medical certificate.
But the insidious and detailed questionnaire contained in the above-mentioned circular letter Tremonti to 'all' the foundations of banking origin also serves to soften, and a lot of the positions on what is actually the true pillar of 'architecture of the next adventure Italian banking system, the Deposits and Loans, administered by a loyal little time for the third time the Italian finance minister, by the name of Massimo Varazzani and whose presidency has been called, with almost craxiana perfidy, 's former Minister Franco Bassanini, Minister at the time of the value of different center-left governments, a fund controlled by the state and largely owned by the Foundation and which was so recently granted permission to utilize a greater portion of the postal savings. The equally unpopular Governor of the Bank of Italy, Mario Draghi, has recently launched a clear message to banks, although, as usual, between the lines and pompous language, asking them not to actually make use of Tremonti Bonds finally born, an essential step for the design of Bermont, but I will speak more of this tomorrow!
Before continuing, I feel obliged to turn our gaze to what is happening at this time on both sides of the Atlantic, since the weekend, as was widely expected, were consumed some events that affect a lot and also, on the issues that I faced in the three previous episodes of the economic consequences of Silvio Berlusconi! The first is represented by the abnormal Summit of Heads of State and Government of the four major EU countries, Italy, of course, included, attended by the president of the EU, Barroso, the Dutch premier, the English and the Czech Republic, due to six-month rotating presidency, far from being ephemeral and a meeting in which it was put down a very challenging agenda ahead of the G20/G21 scheduled for April 2 in the near future that of London, an agenda which includes, inter alia, an unrelenting fight against tax havens to be the basis of those guilty of 7000 billion € that not only are largely diverted from the tax provided for in the home countries, but are also seen, rightly or wrongly, as the hot money that has been raging, for highly speculative financial market Global overwhelmed by ever-higher waves of the perfect storm going on for over a year and a half.
Chiarito lo scenario internazionale che farà da cornice alle scelte di politica economica e ai piani di salvataggio delle entità protagoniste del mercato finanziario italiano, possiamo riprendere il filo del ragionamento esposto nelle tre puntate precedenti, ricordando che ci eravamo fermati a quanto è emerso nell’intervento del Governatore della Banca d’Italia alla riunione annuale del Forex e delle altre associazioni degli operatori impegnati nel mercato finanziario, un intervento nel quale Draghi ha evitato accuratamente di criticare il Governo per la scarsa entità dei provvedimenti, soprattutto se raffrontati alle cifre multiple messe in campo da Brown, da Sarkozy e dalla Merkel, mentre ha invitato i banchieri presenti (e i tanti stranamente assenti) a valutare molto attentamente il testo che prevede i cosiddetti Tremonti Bonds, che molti, a torto o a ragione, vedono come una sorta di cavallo di Troia of Bermont to conquer the somewhat shaky defensive walls of the top five Italian banking groups.
the hunt from his chair the hated Antonio Fazio, was just to indicate to Berlusconi and Tremonti named after the top man at Goldman Sachs, but for a decade, General Manager of the Treasury, Mario Draghi, in fact, although fully in mind the crucial role played by the appointed Governor in the process of privatization of the banking system and companies such as Telecom, ENI and ENEL, a role that placed him indisputably as a leading design-European strongly advocated by Carlo Azeglio Ciampi Romano Prodi, Carlo De Benedetti and singer and the company that represented a veritable feast for the leading Investment Banks in the world, including the powerful and even more prescient Goldman Sachs co-opted the very appropriately at the end of his experience in Via XX Settembre, giving him important assignments in Europe and admitting to its global Executive Committee !
absolutely do not want to even enter the lively debate that saw at that stage of the privatization process a missed opportunity to enhance the experience of State Holdings, a gift to the capital of Mediobanca and large families, but what is certain is that the medium, small and very small businesses remained, so to speak, his mouth became very dry and hard to understand the strategy of the hard kernels and peanuts applied to developments such as the Italian Banca Commerciale, Credito Italian, and major utilities mentioned above, an opposition deaf and dumb that was not unrelated to the first major business venture Roberto Colaninno and its fellow adventurers, the first hint of an economic basis that he was taking the party of the North who was then only in 'the mind'.
Just as it seems necessary to point out the dual presidency of IRI should be entrusted with Romano Prodi, or, in the double challenge of Silvio Berlusconi and Carlo De Benedetti, the first one, yet at the time of penta and when Craxi enjoyed reputation as a great statesman, right on the EMS which the Professor wanted to leave at all costs, how many years later, Alitalia, all occasions on which it was entrusted to a young Berlusconi then the task of the damper, although there is in the middle the great battle over the ownership of Arnoldo Mondadori Editore, a battle of great strategic importance, especially in light of the fact that Rizzoli was already tightly controlled, via Roberto Calvi, the godfathers of the time the man of Arcore.
Then as now, a joint Mediobanca is too important to accept the presence of Bolloré and the French, something that closely resembles the situation in Banca Intesa in the days when the Credit Agricole was its majority shareholder and that was resolved by lightning and several times mentioned the acquisition of San Paolo-IMI, which opens to the discourse concerning Profumo and UniCredit Group, which will face tomorrow!
While the financial crisis has made it much more likely to joining the euro countries that have so far used the opt out clause, there is no doubt that the inability to reach the definition of a rescue unit has given breath to that momentum never soothed to further the interests national, even at the expense of other member countries, increased the tendency to the strengthening and defense of so-called 'national champions', and the temptation to remove, often via mergers later, any presence of 'foreign' unwieldy in the financial sector. I do not have any element of knowledge about the relationship between banker and Elder Giulio Tremonti Marino, Cesare Geronzi, while it is certain that it maintains cordial relations with both Silvio Berlusconi with his right hand man, Gianni Letta, in which the office of Secretary to the Prime Minister held bilateral meetings daily, meetings and councils, a sort of clearing house between the strategies outlined by time and practical application of the same.
I have the impression that Alessandro Profumo not be aware of what happened in these months in and around Palazzo Chigi, perhaps trusting too much in the difficulty of reconciling the vision tremontiana and declared ambitions to Geronzi, as well as on the active interdiction activities conducted by the Governor of the Bank of Italy, in more than one case, enacted provisions that seemed to respond more to the general criteria that will block the road towards those top positions in the General Geronzi which seemed to aspire to, an underestimation of the power relations that exploded during the conversion to u on the model of governance and strongly desired by Geronzi is hampered by that perfume to be dredged. Everything is
become clearer when a reporter at UniCredit Group is anticipated to house, the official organ of the Confederation, a large one page guide to the possible merger between Unicredit and Mediobanca Group, a real bolt from the blue, with obvious consequence of imposed by CONSOB denials by the two groups involved, but just as obviously nothing said about the intentions of the shareholders of the respective groups, particularly those of the Italian side, some of which is more than note the dissatisfaction with the current situation, particular reference to the progressive action of Unicredit melted.
While it is quite difficult if not impossible, to say what would be the industrial sense of such a combination, although this was not too worried about mega-mergers in the two mentioned above, or who would drive the ball, not to mention the near future governance of the aggregate result, what is certain is that prodest, especially in light of the names that have circulated for the posts of chairman and CEO who have seen the most correspond respectively to those of Cesare Geronzi and Alberto Nagel, while, on the basis of numbers, Bolloré presence of French and other members of Mediobanca would be diluted dramatically, and so their influence on what is perhaps the main reason for existence of the institution Piazzetta Cuccia: participation in the General!
Despite the size reached in the meantime, there is no doubt that the Monte dei Paschi di Siena bank is the latest example of attention to the needs of the Sienese territory, not indifferent to the needs of the inhabitants of Tuscany, but not yet fully aware of the role of national bank that also has reached a long time, a stark contradiction destined to become very onerous and lightning after the acquisition of Antonveneta at a price record for a nine billion euro bank now far from the levels of activity and rooting claimed only a few years ago, however, private of a major bank owned, sold separately on the ability Don Emilio Botin.
When I have repeatedly dealt with the case, the action of the Sienese traded at a multiple of what exists today, while the absorption of the assets of the Foundation increased its investment continues to remain around the stratospheric rate of 90 per cent, which will make it very difficult to respond to specific questions but indiscreet contained in the message received by the third time Italian finance minister, Giulio Tremonti, a circular letter to all bank foundations seeking detailed answers on issues such as financial risks, profitability, any utilizzo del fondo di stabilizzazione e via discorrendo, domande delle quali, almeno nel caso di Siena, conosce già, almeno per sommi capi, le risposte.
Come si sa, nella non troppo remota tentata scalata della Banca Nazionale del Lavoro da parte del rinomato duo Consorte-Sacchetti, con Caltagirone e furbetti del quartierino al seguito, Unipol si trovò in rotta di collisione proprio con il Monte dei Paschi di Siena e alcune importanti cooperative, il che ha poi portato a sciogliere i nodi societari che da tempo legavano le due entità, anche se, almeno limitandosi a vedere i corsi di borsa, non sta andando troppo bene neanche per Unipol Gruppo Finanziario, come da qualche tempo è stata ribattezzata la compagnia assicurativa di Via Stalingrad in that of Bologna.
One of the most interesting reads of my youth was titled magnates and farmers of the Ciompi in Florence, a book that gave me a glimpse on the particular character of the Tuscans, although I must say that the year of study spent in that city in the year the flood gave me some more first-hand impression, so I do not find quite strange obstinacy of Siena Contrada to believe the bank founded in the fifteenth century, a matter solely their problem, a belief which the enterprise of the young pirate Mussari lawyer, Calabrian-born adoption of Siena, has dealt a blow that I believe will prove to be just deadly, even for the coincidence of the presence, among the shareholders and the board of directors, of the same Caltagirone that had so much in breaking the ambitions of the Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria y BNL who wanted her own so much!
What could realistically be the solution I wrote it long ago and I continue to be convinced that the fate of Siena and Unipol will return to meet even a suggestion of non-aggression pact between the League of Cooperatives and Berlusconi, but it will take to complete the transaction involving a major French banking group in Italy that is now home, right through the grief brought upon so many BNL insurers Bolognese conditio sine qua not because the Foundation of Sansedoni may fall, received the necessary guarantees, that 30 per cent at the time prescribed by law by Tremonti, but then deleted from their treacherous successor after the ambush of the Palazzo (Chigi) warp against Julius the odd couple formed by Fini and Casini, thanks to the absence of serious illness Umberto Bossi that Tremonti is bound by a pact of steel.
I will not dwell on the technical features associated with the operation only by me, of course, imagined, except to say that would certainly be much more significant than those on the plan which have marked 'all' the wave of mergers without fear of foreign shareholders and could also represent the light of the excellent relations between Berlusconi and Sarkozy, a strong compensation of potential dilution suffered by Bolloré and companions in Mediobanca and hence, in general, where neither Nameless, nor Don Rodrigo in turn should lead to barriers Betrothed to Mediobanca and Unicredit Group! From all this
Ambaradan the upper floors of the Italian financial system would remain when foreign entities which, although present in the top five banking groups and fully admitted to the list of the Milan Stock Exchange, continue to define the credit cooperative, a name that being the urticaria to Berlusconi and Tremonti and not entirely by chance, the former secretary generale di Palazzo Chigi, poi divenuto presidente dell’Antitrust, Antonio Catricalà, della stranezza si è lungamente occupato nella recente indagine conoscitiva sulla corporate governance di banche e compagnie di assicurazione, un testo che è stato opportunamente inviato, per le determinazioni del caso, a Governo e Parlamento e che prevede che quanto previsto per le piccole e medie banche popolari, o per le singole banche di credito cooperativo (già il discorso cambia, secondo l’Antitrust, per le federazioni regionali delle stesse BCC) non può valere per colossi del calibro di UBI Banca, Banco Popolare, Banca Popolare di Milano o Banca Popolare dell’Emilia Romagna (per un esame più approfondito del testo dell’Antitrust to be published by reference to Article I drafted with Lamberto Santini, confederal secretary of the UIL, which among other things, deals with economic democracy).
yet right in the stormy sea, there is no doubt that any changes in legislation and regulations relating to the larger banks will be preceded or followed by further aggregation processes that should reduce by half the number of questions, something which is already attempted in the past by BPER and Banca Popolare di Milano, though not made to withdraw it, in extremis, one of the two entities involved, although the recent change in its articles of association, strongly desired Bank of Italy and change the internal balance could help restart this or other business combination, because, being four entities potentially involved, the possible combinations can be as varied, until the overpopulation of someone discussed previously, an entity so large in size that could easily afford to lose the benefits of credit standards realtive cooperate and compete on an equal footing with the other giants of the credit in Italy and abroad!
Imagine for a moment to be the day after the reorganization under way at the top of the list of Italian banking groups, would Clearly, without necessarily passing through any nationalization, the influence of government on the main Italian banks could really defines the tasks and enable easier implementation of those projects related to the real economy on which I will discuss tomorrow.
The issue of so-called Tremonti Bonds by the banks concerned to receive state aid will be on the other hand, a clear test of the influence achieved by the Executive towards the top of the major Italian banking groups, which is intended a share of around 80 per cent of the 10-12 billion euro provided an important test because, at the end of a long and exhausting confrontation, the Minister of Finance has checked on the ABI, the Bank of Italy's most sensitive environments and the reasons for the banks and was able to impose a number of conditions, only a year ago, banks would have indignantly rejected the sender, but are now preparing to face, though not without some grumbling very quiet!
The adoption of a code of ethics, the moratorium for one year of mortgage cassintegrati and unemployment, a sharp fall in bonuses and stock options mega millionaires (per capita), the control exercised by the prefects on the stability of loans to businesses, especially those small and very small, are not exactly prone facili da ingoiare per il gotha dei banchieri italiani, gente abituata a condizionare i politici, piuttosto che esserne condizionata, se non apertamente minacciata dal per la terza volta ministro italiano dell’Economia che, in più di un’occasione, ha ripetuto che, in caso di default, vi era una sola alternativa per i banchieri: andare a casa o in galera!
Certo, come ogni vincitore che si rispetti, Tremonti ha riposto sia l’arme della critica che quella delle armi, accontentandosi di avere messo in riga tutti quelli che, a torto o a ragione, ancora considera i responsabili dei danni subiti dai risparmiatori/investitori in una lunga serie di vicende dal carattere eccezionale, da Parmalat a Cirio, dai Bonds argentini Giacomelli, but also somewhat harassed the ordinary management of the banks, on which had long left the bridle on his neck that the Antitrust, actually. For some 'time you are working hard to do the real causes of the chronic lack of competition in the Italian banking market, a market in which the Italian banks and the marquees are very loving and in agreement.
confirming the enfant terrible of the Italian economic newspaper, Oscar Giannino from 'his' Free Market has launched a broadside against evil is not the major Italian banking groups and subjected to the same stress test scheduled for the first nineteen U.S. banks and drawing the conclusion that, with the exception of positive UBI Bank, all other are placed just above the 3 per cent, where the legacy is adjusted goodwill, trademark and other items that do not hold two minutes where the bank examined it were really in trouble, a check that happens when a bean is struggling so much on whether or not state aid for banks.
Referring explicitly to the experience in the field made by France, the Italian government aims to achieve the best possible result in terms of influence and moral suasion against those groups that represent so much of the Italian banking system with the minimum outlay means, however, much better paid than the Treasury corresponds to its creditors, while Tremonti continues to be accredited as a new Robin Hood in the eyes of those small businesses that already were or clear potential to be the main victims of the credit crunch in progress , which for Bermont is anything but irrelevant results obtained by putting in little more than small change compared to the really huge financial effort supported by the three major European competitors.
Launched a good handful of pastries to the people of entrepreneurs, Berlusconi can then devote to more important matters, reaching an agreement on strategic nuclear friend lawyer and former businessman Nicolas Sarkozy, the setting for the signing of a comprehensive deal between EDF and ENEL, puts the turbo to the bridge over the Strait of Messina, tries to quell the riot in the hen house in Milan around the Big Business Expo tied near future, all much work still to come in but allow the premier and his ministers to put a helmet on his head and white or yellow cast reassuring messages about a future of tens of billions of Euros of public works and very private interests.
But where, at least the third attempt, Berlusconi made his masterpiece in this work is the interception of more or less real fears of his audience, no matter how the same media that are amplified by definire embedded e poco più di un eufemismo, un’opera nella quale il nostro non sbaglia davvero un colpo, poco importa che si tratti di immigrati, delinquenza più o meno organizzata, fannulloni, scioperanti nei servizi pubblici, con particolare attenzione ai trasporti, una lista molto lunga di obiettivi caratterizzati da un denominatore comune: una chiara maggioranza nei sondaggi preventivamente favorevole a che si faccia qualcosa, senza andare troppo per il sottile e con poca o nulla attenzione agli effetti collaterali!
In perfetta assonanza con quanto previsto nel noto manifesto di una delle organizzazioni più o meno segrete di chiara ispirazione atlantica, anche nella sua terza esperienza governativa, Silvio Berlusconi ha clear that the remaining part of the country that insists on not to become a self-employed or an entrepreneur even part time has remained the only bulwark, and this is represented by trade unions which, unlike the parties of the center-left or left currently excluded from Parliament, are still characterized by a strong social roots and a significant ability to influence their members that, including retirees, continue to exceed the ten million women and men, a significant number, although now As I wrote in the first episode, the employees as a whole have become a minority.
While not representing a chapter in the political economica in senso stretto, è tuttavia evidente che quello delle relazioni con le organizzazioni sindacali rappresenta un capitolo cruciale della strategia di Berlusconi, ma che è anche il capitolo sul quale ha incontrato le maggiori difficoltà nelle sue due precedenti esperienze governative, al punto da decidersi a delegarle completamente al duo Sacconi-Brunetta, i due ministri che, assieme a Tremonti, maggiormente risentono dell’influenza di Franco Reviglio della Venaria, una circostanza rivendicata dall’ex ministro socialista delle Finanze in una sua recente apparizione televisiva andata in onda a tardissima notte.
Le prossime settimane e i prossimi mesi chiariranno se l’azione congiunta di Brunetta e Sacconi avrà success, although the gap that was being created between the CGIL on one side and the other three trade union confederations on the other hand seems to be diminishing, given the awareness that the goal may not be the only downsizing organization based in Course Italy, as the union per se, a doubt that creeps more and more among the staffs of the CISL, UIL and UGL, particularly since Epifani and leading members of his federation are taking a more cautious attitude.
I do not know if it matches the true what some members of the same majority, that is, that we are facing the very real risk that there be a sort of monarchy absolute, a scenario which would coincide with a radical constitutional reform and presidentialist sense, but what is certain is that a union would be a disaster recovery unit to the proponents of this plan!
The considerations given in the previous seven episodes are in fact little more than a prerequisite for achieving what I believe is undoubtedly the heart of the Italian problem, that is, represented by the Moloch of the public debt in the strict sense, net debt and pension of what is not visible to most people, because hidden in the folds of the many operations that have made him invisible to official statistics, that, to be clear that viene raffrontato al deficit annuale per fornirci quel valore che va raffrontato a quel limite massimo del 60 per cento previsto dal Trattato di Maastricht, piccola località olandese nella quale gli allora paesi membri dell’Unione europea gettarono le basi per la nascita della moneta unica europea, attualmente adottata da sedici dei ventisette paesi aderenti, ma che, anche grazie alla tempesta perfetta in corso da oltre un anno e mezzo, vede allungarsi la lista dei candidati all’ingresso, Gran Bretagna, Danimarca e Svezia in primis, oltre, ovviamente, a quella parte dei new comers che sta faticosamente cercando di mettersi in regola con i requisiti richiesti dalla lettera e dallo spirito del summenzionato Trattato.
Come forse ricorderanno my readers, the eleven countries that were candidates with Italy in 1998 took a true act of faith in the ability of Italy, arrived exhausted but happy to achieve 'instant' in the 3 percent deficit / GDP ratio in 1997 thanks to the care horse strongly desired by the Treasury Minister, Carlo Azeglio Ciampi, and the then prime minister, Romano Prodi, to remain in the future by that value and to reduce gradually but surely, the ratio of debt to GDP to converge to values \u200b\u200bwell above the 100 percent threshold of the fateful 60 per cent, although none has so far been able to explain the real reasons that led the founding fathers of the euro to fix it precisely at that level.
The key, I would say the pick, which was critical to the success of the titanic undertaking Ciampi and Prodi is represented by the so-called primary surplus, which then is that the positive difference between revenue and expenditure of that perimeter of the public sector considered by EUROSTAT, net of related debt, then significant in terms of ratio to GDP, but today has definitely exceeded, in absolute terms, the threshold of the three thousand billion of those that Berlusconi continues to call the old lire.
Regarding the events of that period and the reconstruction of the famous night of the euro, referring to episodes of Diary of the crisis in which I have dealt with events that I lived in as an economist room of a major Italian bank, who left employment in another night shooting on television and after an interview to a journalist's economic good TG3 then landed at Channel 5, that of the fixed and irrevocable fixing of parities in May 1998, and because he was appointed bureau chief and chief press officer of the studies UILCA, but mainly because, in the Forex market in fact reduced to three currencies, the activities of foreign-exchange forecaster was almost superfluous, although it remains central to central banks watchers to predict movements in interest rates ufficiali.
Anche sull’ingresso nell’euro e sulle scelte di politica e economica e fiscale assunte dall’allora maggioranza di centro sinistra capitanata da Prodi, lo scontro politico tra europeisti e atlantici fu al calor bianco, anche se i danni prospettici maggiori avvennero nel corso del Governo di Lamberto Dini, frutto dello sfilamento repentino della Lega dalla maggioranza, ma anche di un’opposizione sindacale ai progetti del Berlusconi I che vide milioni di lavoratori e pensionati invadere le principali piazze del Paese, ma sta di fatto che tedeschi e olandesi scommisero su di noi sino ad accettare un rapporto di cambio tra lira e marco tedesco, fondamentale per la successiva parità con l’euro, molto più their desired high, allowing willing to Italy last devaluation of the lira and to employees and retirees a heavy burden from which they have yet to recover, or, in my modest opinion, never will recover!
vanished in a short time the effects last devaluation was for all of us the myth of the primary, something that we are saving as ants, also made us very proud, a sort of systemic budget constraint which, however, looks case, it was accompanied, in the next eleven years, to levels of growth of national wealth actually lowest, partly the result of the strike of the investments of the vast majority of entrepreneurs, especially those of medium, small and very small, which felt unduly harassed by the IRS and the proliferation of so-Guido Carli liked to call the bonds and snares of the Italian economy, which, said the theoretician and practical use of rope Executioner on interest rates, not to mention his experience as Minister of Foreign Trade in the fifties, is a little 'smile, even if, in the words of Augusto Graziani, my supervisor degree, in the end Charles was a Keynesian against his will.
Although mothers and fathers Italians us all aware of the importance of spending less than you earn, it is equally Clearly, it is difficult to accept the same principle in economic enterprise, an activity that is defined entirely by chance and risk that requires the use of bank credit both for reasons of cash flexibility for funding over the medium long-term investments that can not be fed with only the cash flow resulting from the company's profitability, as it is hard to believe that only the state should not accept a debt higher than the 'sales', which happens easily with reference to Fiat, Enel, Eni and the Telecom Italy, entities that add up debts of various kinds to twice what they produce each year, bearing more or less easily charges related to debt service.
Of course, if you have a static view of public debt management and a somewhat passive, the formula applied by the duo-Ciampi, Prodi and Padoa-Schioppa, Prodi is the only option, nor the experience of the Berlusconi and Berlusconi II have deviated from this very sort of curse of debt that will have a lot of biblical, but very little economic, although it must be said that any attempt to brand and relief Tremonti has also attempted, but. Like his Master Reviglio said in the interview cited above, committing a few mistakes and some superficiality is dictated inexperience that the intrinsic characteristics of the character!
Even knowing what my readers think of the concomitant phenomena of financial activities, globalization and deregulation wild, do not even belong to the vast array of those who believe that we can happily throw out the baby with the bathwater on, which I can safely say that there are plenty of technicalities to be resigned to not strangling the real economy and passively accept the misfortune to grow at a fractional rate of potential output or accept that for many reasons, not excluding the survival instinct, a huge amount of entrepreneurs and for their employees should ever remain in the gray area is that the black economy or black.
on active management of debt, I received an interesting proposal from a private research center of Novara, as well as in the years I have discussed with experts in debt instruments of the opportunity to find innovative ways that do not include the sale of state property, to the point of thinking that this passage is the true Hic hic Rhode jumps to anyone who wants to ensure a better future for our country! But I will speak more of this in the episode tomorrow.
E'almeno the end of the Roaring Eighties, but in particular by the Amato government, which took off in full Tangentopoli that any executive has succeeded to the leadership of the country has actually had their hands tied by the weight percentage and the absolute value of the debt, an issue that has been handled in a strictly passive, however, if an exception is made for a decision and episodic impeccable taken by Giulio Tremonti in the period 2001-2006 of which ran before the hunt decided by Fini and Casini, opening the way for the interim period of gray Domenico Siniscalco.
E 'at least strange that at a period less than twenty years and almost contemporary with the exponential growth of financial activities on a global level, has not tried to do anything to transform the public debt problem into an opportunity, leaving all the ideas in the field, unfortunately, often realized, which is roughly the sale or selling off the family silver, an exercise that this has absolutely no differences seen in the executive that have followed, though, as I mentioned above, most important, irreversible decisions were taken in the early nineties by a trio-Amato-Draghi Ciampi, while there is no doubt that whether Berlusconi Tremonti, in particular experience in this government, seem to appreciate much more the idea of \u200b\u200bgreater State influence in the utilities still not fully privatized, ENI and ENEL in the first place, but also to count all the private companies such as Telecom Italy, not to mention di quella vera e propria ansia di controllare direttamente o indirettamente i maggiori gruppi creditizi italiani di cui credo proprio di avere già scritto a sufficienza.
Che il settore delle telecomunicazioni inteso in senso lato sia oggetto di attenzioni a livello quasi ossessivo da parte di Silvio Berlusconi è cosa non solo ultranota, ma anche comprensibile alla luce degli interessi diretti che il premier ha nel settore dei media, televisivi e non, un mercato che presenta rilevanti analogie con quello creditizio, anche se in realtà in questo caso si può parlare a buon diritto più di un duopolio che di un oligopolio collusivo, anche se si tratta di un duopolio che inizia a essere minacciato dalla crescente concorrenza della Sky di Rupert Murdoch, but does not seem to worry too much about what increasingly seems to really like Raiset the danger represented by the two networks that reports directly to Telecom Italy, provided that Bernabé not claim to grow in terms of audience more than it did at the time Mark Tronchetti Provera.
As a real secret interest nurtured by Berlusconi for the wedding of the century, that between Mediaset and Telecom Italy, which is an interest, although not the only reason for the strong action Palazzo Chigi that interdiction exercises on the ambitions of Spain's Telefonica and those of his rival, Murdoch, both interested in doing the bang, the first with a takeover or Telco or the entire company, while the second seems more concerned to overcome the limitations arising from the satellite, moving bag and baggage on the wire.
After the sad experience of his former life as CEO of Telecom Italy, there is no doubt that Franco Bernanbè, which is only appropriate for another former pupil and protégé of Franco Reviglio of veneration, he certainly understood that it is absolutely the case to put on a collision course with the Government, it seems indeed to be one of the most frequent visitors of the rooms that matter to Palazzo Chigi, a crowded which has become much more intense in recent weeks, almost twice the CEO of Telecom, with experience in similar position no other than ENI, a bracket for the presidency of the European Rothschild, consider the executive his one and only shareholder, as if we were still the days of Super Stet Agnes and Pascale!
Beyond the indubitable fact that Franco Bernabe is one of the few Italian top managers of the highest quality, certified also by his attendance at an exclusive club as the group Bildberg, the reasons for his allegiance from the axis-Berlusconi Tremonti Letta are somewhat simple and lie in the debt structure of the driving for the second time, after climbing by Roberto Colaninno and that of Marco Tronchetti Provera, is at a ratio of net debt to revenue continues to oscillate at values \u200b\u200bclose to two, but that was already gnawed all the spolpabile the previous two parents, with just as vehemently notes Beppe Grillo, but what is most striking is that over two thirds of the debt securities were issued abroad, thus presenting a situation not too different from that of Callisto Tanzi's Parmalat and Cirio Sergio Cagnotti first of their default and sensational.
Although it is certainly true that this situation will not occur in a different way in the major corporations based in Italy, it is obvious that at least Bernabè absolutely need to qualify national champion and the reality of government protection against the appetites of the socio Carlos Alierta and the 'shark' Murdoch, two who are known to be very active when they hear the blood of the prey escape from his injuries on duty, but two people are perfectly capable of grasping the message implicit in the transaction-CAI Alitalia, an operation certainly absurd when viewed in terms of economy or from the perspective of the injured creditors and taxpayers, but that is a clear warning against anyone who dares to think that it is possible to 'expand 'in Italy, not only without political support, but even against the wishes of the tenant pro tempore of the Palazzo Chigi.
Una delle caratteristiche principali di Silvio Berlusconi è quella di essere in grado di trasformare, a volte in modo anche brillante, qualsiasi rischio o minaccia in un’opportunità, anche perché non è affatto escluso che possa decidere di sfruttare le ambizioni dello spagnolo e dell’australiano per risolvere o perlomeno diluire fortemente l’annosa questione del conflitto di interessi che, assieme alla sua inguaribile tendenze alle gaffes più o meno pesanti, rappresenta da sempre il suo tallone d’Achille, anche se tendo a escludere che rinunci a essere socio dell’aggregato che potrebbe venire fuori da un merger tra telefonia e televisione, anche perché, al di là della quota residua, basta have a shareholders' agreement armored continue to exert its influence on the colossus that might arise.
think the impact would such an operation that, in one fell swoop, would allow Berlusconi's claim to have resolved his conflict, out of the corner of the obsolescence of its main business being to find a successor to the poor Fedele Confalonieri just can not do more than continue to be the lightning rod of his boyhood friend, to have a share of what could be an undertaking of great success, to monetize the investment in Mediolanum, as well as to stop being the generous editor Massimo d'Alema and Walter Veltroni!
Delineato lo scenario sulle tre questioni centrali della Bermonti Economics, assetto del mercato finanziario italiano, ruolo della media, piccola e piccolissima impresa e dei cosiddetti lavoratori autonomi, mercato delle telecomunicazioni in senso lato (telefono, televisioni e internet), ci si potrebbe anche fermare qui, non fosse che l’articolazione della politica economica e fiscale si interseca con questi e moltissimi altri aspetti della vita sociale ed economica del nostro Paese che non possono essere lasciati in ombra, per non parlare di quelli che nei bugiardini delle case farmaceutiche sono definiti gli effetti collaterali e le interazioni tra un aspetto e un altro dell’agire economico, come ben sanno quei benemeriti che cercano di convogliare in un modello più o meno econometrico i comportamenti più o meno razionali dei diversi attori che ogni giorno di muovono sulla scena economica italiana, europea e globale, spesso non tenendo conto del fatto che la storia economica ha già fatto bellamente giustizia dell’unica teoria, quella dell’equilibrio economico generale di walrasiana memoria, che cercava a nodo suo di descrivere un mercato nel quale tutti disponessero delle stesse informazioni, ognuno agisse in modo razionale e la stessa determinazione dei prezzi relativi venisse istantaneamente risolta dalla celebre mazza del banditore!
Già, perché ogni decisione presa dall’apparente protagonista della vita economica e sociale del Country, the government pro tempore in office, has effects that are known only in small part by those who take the decisions themselves, which are often changed during the weary and feverish parliamentary sessions, and, as has undoubtedly emerged in more than one occasion , altered but not least, the drafters of the final version of the measure, a procedure that involves less than a thousand people whose preparation in finance and economics more than I have some doubts, especially in light of the fact that the professions represented the executive and the legislative and the economy and certainly the one that presents a burden on the periphery. How
then the capacity of government to influence the price structure, even those that weigh heavily in the basket of the Italian family, no matter whether consumer or producer, it would suffice to refer to those in some way related to energy, electricity tariffs and gas and fuel prices, also set by a small number of companies, to understand that even a child with abacus would be able to exercise greater influence than that the executive of the center-right and center-left have never succeeded, or have never wanted to exercise!
What about rates and conditions applied in the financial market and related deposits, loans, bills, fees legate alla gestione professionale del risparmio altrui, e via discorrendo, ma basterebbe un riferimento al recente provvedimento in materia di agevolazioni statali all’acquisto di un veicolo più o meno ecologico per capire che i decision makers si sono banalmente dimenticati di prevedere che, per beneficiare delle agevolazioni, le case automobilistiche venissero tassativamente chiamate a fare la loro parte.
Se vi è poi un aspetto che, per motivi strettamente temporali, è stato gestito sia da Berlusconi che da Prodi, quello dell’adesione e successiva introduzione della moneta unica europea, non credo sfugga a nessuno che ci si è semplicemente dimenticati di adottare semplici accorgimenti che avrebbe impedito a tutti coloro that has the power to determine prices of the product / service / service and then do what they did in large part, that is, to apply a conversion rate is very different from the official one, which allowed the owners of houses, professionals of all types and species, wholesalers and retail businesses less open to international trade to divide rather than per thousand for a little less than two thousand pounds in the price to get the new price expressed in euro!
Despite having dedicated two episodes of the Journal of the financial crisis to the subject, I must mention here that there is no trace in the economic history of the Italian postwar world of depleted Flash this proportion to the detriment of all those that prices are forced to endure them, having no possibility of determination: the employees not engaged in business or self-employed part time or in black and pensioners who are in the same condition, no matter From this point of view, to determine precisely the extent of impoverishment, although it must be said that estimates very, very conservative would say that was not less than the 20-30 per cent, a level which is reached only because some prices have gone against the grounds that it is not absolutely need to examine here.
Strangely, this question is very closely intertwined with that of the budget deficit and the stock of public debt discussed above, but even more so with the weakness of the component linked to the consumption of the more general effective demand which is linked to the invisible tax represented dall'invarianza of tax brackets to inflation and the total weight of the tax burden, both that related to direct taxes to indirect taxes and excise duties very unfair!
I would be very curious to see what would happen using a simple case of what if? sofisiticatissimi to econometric models of the Bank of Italy or other economic studies centers that exist in our country, assuming a general rise in salaries and pensions pensionistiche nella misura che ho indicato come stima di quella che potremmo considerare la tassa dell’euro, una condizione accompagnata dalla restituzione del fiscal drag relativo ai numerosi anni nei quali tale doverosa operazione non è stata effettuata, assicurando anche ai più scettici tra i miei lettori che avremmo un impatto sulla domanda effettiva realmente significativo e che, unito al piano di investimenti per infrastrutture e altre opere pubbliche già immaginato dall’esecutivo, aiuterebbe, via moltiplicatore, a determinare una crescita del prodotto lordo nel medio periodo più che proporzionale, anche tenendo conto della relativa perdita in termini di ragioni di scambio.
Sono certo che una simile idea non sfiora neppure Bermont's mind, nor form part of any program of one hundred days of a winning (?) against deployment, which inevitably raises the need to address the other horn of the dilemma Italy, that the stubborn and obstinate theft from taxpayers categories entrepreneurial and independent of several hundred billion tax taxes and contributions, with corresponding increase of taxes and contributions borne by them, but, minus the deduction system and other lawful avoidance schemes would still not be comparable to that borne by the usual suspects, then these are often just because their employer or entity paying the pension are required to exercise the role of substitute tax, of course when they are not complicit, more or less consenting, tax evasion and to pay them cheerfully, and much exercised with impunity.
I think I have provided in these ten episodes all the information available for the time being on what many expected to be the economic and fiscal policy of Silvio Berlusconi, expect in the near future to resume the argument, although I do believe that is not difficult to see where it is destined to end up not taking the Italian economy, as they say, the bull by the horns because of the contradictions inherent in the social bloc stubbornly pampered by our Prime Minister and his closest associates, a scenario which, alas, leads us straight, straight to the situation experienced by Argentina in its time and that, in the very near future, could hit most of the European new comers!
I apologize to the many foreign readers of the Journal of the financial crisis that have been patient for these ten days in full, or nearly so, dedicated to the events of a country that is also increasingly marginal to the global financial and economic scene, will also largely all the defects that are usually charged by the strict foreign observers, but that remains, wright or wrong, my Country!
As for movies sometimes a bit 'dated, it is often necessary a sequel, though, at least in this case, the need is due to the fact that, perhaps frightened from the rapid economic crisis triggered by the perfect storm, Berlusconi decided to pull a rabbit out of his hat and giant size that is meeting in a way unprecedented felt a strong desire by a large part of the Italian people, and that coincides with the possible expansion of the physical limits of dwelling houses, especially those homes with outdoor space.
In the initial part of this work, I tried to describe the sociological transformation underway for some time in Italian society, in particular to become coincident with the majority of the aggregate formed by employers of all sizes, self-employed professionals, but, perhaps above all, what I have called the hybrids are partially employed, and some farmers, small businesses and commercial operators, a situation that often through the screen relatives, children and relatives, now has hundreds of thousands, if not the millions of people, but, as mentioned in the 'overtaking' is some statistical uncertainty, there is no doubt that the vast majority of Italians own the house home, as it is statistically proven that more than ten million of these dwellings are houses, cottages, completely independent of type or bi, tri o quadrifamiliare.
Non c’è bisogno di essere indovini per capire come la possibilità di espandere, senza particolari formalità burocratiche, la superficie di queste case di almeno il venti per cento della cubatura precedente, di più ove si realizzi una nuova costruzione abbattendo la vecchia e ancora di più se si realizzano costruzioni maggiormente efficienti in termini energetici, se non addirittura costruite secondo i criteri della bioedilizia, sia una mossa destinata ad avere un impatto psicologico di ampia magnitudo, in particolare se si accompagna al progetto di trasformare gli inquilini delle case popolari in proprietari delle stesse, utilizzando l’affitto preesistente in una sorta di riscatto.
To have any precedent in the same power of public opinion, we must return to that House Plan in announcing leading exponent of the Christian Democrats by the name of Amintore Fanfani, a move that, in one with welfare policies and Southern put into practice within a few years, made almost stable on a majority of that party which, alone or in training pentapartitica, has dominated Italian politics since the war to the sad and shameful ending of the investigation by the Milan judiciary that became known as Tangentopoli and that led to the disappearance or transformation of the majority parties and the major political force of opposition, then represented by the Italian Communist Party that became very rapid succession in the PDS, then the DS, until finally breaking up in the Democratic Party.
If someone feared the possibility of long survival of the new Freedom Party, created by the new training refined minds, but apparently saw the light only for a sudden show of Berlusconi's genius, I believe you can put the soul in peace , since the decision to grant one of the warmest wishes from the Italians was one of those designed to boost significantly the already high proportion of membership of the political design of the PDL Northern League and Covenant, after the uncertainties e gli errori delle prime due esperienze, sembra davvero marciare in sintonia con la ‘pancia’ profonda della maggioranza degli italiani.
Sulle conseguenze economiche del nuovo piano casa berlusconiano vi possono essere ipotesi di impatto molto diverse tra di loro a seconda del grado di adesione dei proprietari di case più o meno indipendenti e dell’orientamento dei detentori di appartamenti aventi possibilità ‘legittime’ di ampliamento in base ai progetti circolati, nonché a quello delle assemblee condominiali, ma è certo che, anche in presenza di adesioni comprese tra il 10 e il 20 per cento degli ‘aventi diritto’, si registrerebbe una domanda di prestazioni professionali dei tecnici coinvolti and construction activities more closely, including supplies, the order of several tens of billions of euro, set to become several hundred accessions in the presence of more massive, the latter situation, which I frankly more realistic than the first.
For students of economic history, the mix of measures provided by Bermont (indirect control of the largest banking groups, depending on use of the prefects 'persuasive' in respect of such banks, trust and support of other funds to guarantee loans small enterprise, the end of the system early on VAT, the choices described above on construction and so on) could lead to a riedizione della fase vissuta dall’Italia negli anni Trenta e che vide un minore impatto della crisi economica mondiale sull’economia alquanto antartica del Belpaese, per non parlare poi delle somiglianze evidenti tra l’approccio del per la terza volta ministro italiano dell’economia, Giulio Tremonti e la gestione della crisi bancaria di allora da parte di Alberto Benedice, con la conseguente nascita dell’Istituto per la Ricostruzione Industriale, meglio noto con la sigla IRI!
Vedo già l’inarcare di sopracciglia da parte di molti dei miei lettori, così come mi rendo conto che il grado di integrazione delle economie è oggi enormemente maggiore di quanto lo fosse ottanta anni orsono, ma penso proprio che saranno molte le nazioni poste al di qua e al di là dell’Oceano Atlantico a mostrarsi aperte a parole e protezioniste nei fatti, pur non avendo elementi sufficienti per stabilire se risponda al vero la quantificazione che del fenomeno ha fatto di recente Federico Rampini, che ha stimato che quindici dei venti paesi maggiormente industrializzati che si riuniranno solennemente a Londra il 2 aprile prossimo venturo stanno già adottando misure volte a scoraggiare l’import di merci provenienti dai paesi che in questi ultimi venti anni hanno fatto la parte del leone in termini di export.
La quadratura del cerchio di questa svolta in senso protezionistico e alquanto nazionalistico della politica economica di Silvio Berlusconi la ha fornita la recente Screenwriter of the young lady risen to the command of Confindustria, Emma Marcegaglia daughter of 'the metallurgical Steno', and the prime minister, with the giving of a guarantee fund of € 1.3 billion 'real', and a commitment to promote forfeiture of the assets of the tens of billions owed by the government to firms, including, in this case, the smaller ones.
do not think it necessary to spend many words to say that, of course, the 'news' just described could lead to a very different ending than projected at the end of the previous ten episodes, an epilogue perhaps no less dangerous, but that has characteristics on one hand, appear more favorable, but also such as to undermine the existing relations with its European partners and with major exporting countries in Asia.
Although having already spoken of this in the text devoted specifically old problem of telecommunications and television media and the bargain for having decided to devote a future episode of Diary of the financial crisis to the subject, I remember, even in the light policy on dividends recently decided by the Board of Directors of Mediaset, the prediction approach that sees the historic decision to sell its full Berlusconi television empire, a real coup for the theater that could surprise its timing!
remember the video of my speech at the conference of the ILO on the financial crisis is present in the video section of the website of the Free Lance International Press at
http://www.flipnews.org/
.
*
Replay only mentioning the author and the blog address
0 comments:
Post a Comment